In each of the past six recessions, regardless of cause or severity, the stock market led the recovery in employment by 4-9 months. Examples of the stock market bottom followed by the peak level of unemployment in each cycle include: June 1949 vs. November 1949 (5 months), September 1960 vs. May 1961 (8 months), September 1974 vs. May 1975 (8 months), June v. December 1982 (6 months), November 1991 vs. June 1992 (7 months) and February vs. June 2003 (4 months). It stands to reason that the more severe the recession, the higher the level of unemployment and the longer it will take for the employment cycle to reverse direction. This can be seen in the data as the longest recovery lags were the severe 1974-75 recession and the 1960-61 recession.

The current recession is the deepest since the 1930s (for which there are no government employment series to compare with the current event). But if the stock market started its recovery in 1974 eight months prior to employment recovery in 1975, it is reasonable to expect an even longer lag in this recovery, perhaps a year.

By March 2010, we should see employment levels improving and unemployment rates declining. Any recovery between now and then is a bonus. There should be no expectation that we see increasing employment rates between now and year end. 

The source of my data is the FRED data bases maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.  Check it out here for more info.