Just How Bullish is this Market?
I see many of the bearish market commentators proclaiming that market participants are now wildly bullish, or in the words of Kass: "there is a bull market in complacency". Who is still bearish among strategists you might ask? Only all of those that ever were, including: Doug Kass, David Rosenberg, Mort Zuckerman, Joe Battapaglia, David Tice, Peter Schiff, Alan Abelson, et al). So, this bandied about notion that there has been a big move in sentiment from bear to bull, is absolutely false.
All the major market sentiment surveys (AAII, Market Vane, Consensus, Inc., First Coverage) indicate that the market sentiment is overall "neutral" right now. It is no longer Bearish, as it was in the first quarter of the year. Neither is it as positive as it was in May, as many are looking for a correction or a resumption of the Bear market and believe this is the time of the year that is most likely.
Citigroup publishes a proprietary chart that shows sentiment to be somewhat negative, if anything. Because the market climbs a "wall of worry", this is a positive for further gains in the stock market.
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I really like your blog and i respect your work. I’ll be a frequent visitor.
That chart tells me I have been right in the middle of the flock all along. no wonder it didn’t feel lonely. still looking for sept correction as we (the above mentioned flock) have profits in hand to face the still bad underlying news.
I’m not sure whether these indicators are really helpful in the current crisis. I think it looks a little stable right now, but I’m still not sure if we already know the whole story
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I like your Blog, is very interesstet.