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Posts Tagged ‘TBT’

Use TBT Call Options to Profit from Higher Interest Rates

December 21st, 2009 Brian 4 comments

Here is one we can work for a long time, I think.

TBT, which is a blend of that produce a 20 year maturity, moves higher with . It is the "ultra short" version of the bond price, but seems to be a good proxy for 10 times the interest rate. Today it is at 48.50, which is almost exactly 10 times the 4.8% interest rate of a 20 year bond. It was 70 in early 2008 (when it was created) which was similar to 10x the interest rate for a 20 year note at that time. It is not really pegged to that rate, but should move proportionately.

I think we can all agree that move higher from here. So, I suggest buying the 38 June call and selling the 58 June call. This gives a 20% upside between now and June on a $9.70 investment, which means a better than 100% return if move over 5% by that time. I just got done discussing using a put to protect the downside, creating a collar, but there is no point in this case. The price never got below 38 in the crisis and it is hard to see lower than what we just had....forever.

I like using options for any of the "Ultra" or amplified short because they all use Swaps and the futures market to build their positions. Trading costs and other futures market ineffiiciencies cause the price of such to deteriorate over time. Using options forces a repricing of the underlying as the expire. This manages (does not eliminate) the problem with short .

Here are the tickers:

Buy June 38 TBTFL Call for 11.00
Sell June 58 TVTFF Call for 1.30

Net Cost = $9.70 / contract

I think we will be able to keep this trade on, rolling forward and upward, for the next 2-3 years as climb back into "normal" territory with the 20 year maturity average getting back to 7%. If inflation explodes because the Fed up, this is an even better trade and those levels, and beyond, come much faster.

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Categories: Bonds, Options